Football Betting Systems are. . .

a giant scam. You should probably just give me your money instead if you are using one. At least with my way, I get the money, and maybe I'll use it to buy you something.*

Bill Simmons of ESPN (a Bill Simmons that I am not related to, just so we're clear) wrote a giant column last week about his new plan for picking winners. And of course I read it because 1) if I'm trying to be a writer, I might as well read as much as I can to learn what to do and not to do and 2) what do I have going on that is more important than reading random nonsense? So he's got a system, which he tweaks constantly. His system is basically the betting equivalent of this site: you really never know what is going to remain consistent from week to week. Don't try to pigeonhole me!!

Well guess what. After his long offseason of coming up with all sorts of elaborate rules and "wrinkles" for his system, you'd figure he'd be coming out swinging for the fences in Week 1, right? Maybe an 11-5 record, or something like that? Nope. 7-7-2. Basically a .500 if you discount the 2 ties, which were coming no matter who you bet in those games (Saints/Vikings and Rams/Cardinals), so you can't get credit or demerits for them. I figure those are approximately the same results I would have gotten if I had used Odin and Chloe in some sort of elaborate pug-picking system based on which one of them barked first at various television stimuli like random Boston Celtics, the dog from the Gary Rome ads, and polar bears. Actually, I might do that next week since it's too late to try it this week. Pups, you've got a lot of pressure on you. Hope you can handle it.

Know what would have been a good "system" to use last week? Picking the home team. For every single game. Including the spreads, this would have led to a record of 10-4-2, which, had you bet $100 on every game, would have earned you $600. And that's a lot of money. That system would have gotten you a record of 156-111 for the entire 2009-2010 season, which, again, leads to a lot of income. And if you had just picked whichever team had a better record each game (which I like to call my "March Madness" system, and it fails miserably for college basketball) and picked the home team if they were tied, you would have had an even more impressive record of 167-100. Even more money! (Note - those both include all the playoff games as well.)

So what is the point of all of this? I need a bookie. Or to move closer to Vegas. Unless Foxwoods has a sportsbook? I think I am passing up a valuable income stream here.

-Jon

* No I won't.